NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center recently published their outlook for the first month of autumn, covering September. Matching most areas from this summer, the forecast once again leans toward a warmer than average month in the Northeast, Southeast, northern Plains and for most of the West. Below normal temperatures are not expected overall for the month in the lower 48 states.
Wetter than average weather is in the forecast for Arizona and along the Gulf Coast states. Drier than normal precipitation is expected in an area from the western Great Lakes into California. Drought conditions will likely persist in the West and Plains and may expand over the upcoming month.
The Climate Prediction Center notes that La Nina is still present across the Pacific and that the atmosphere and conditions in the tropical Pacific region support those observations. Along with La Nina, sea surface temperatures, sea ice extent, and soil moisture conditions were also considered when shaping the forecast for the September outlook.