Call it a record, but yesterday was the first Moderate Risk issued by the Storm Prediction Center for the 2010 chase season. This is the latest the SPC has gone without issuing a Moderate Risk. I know a few of my storm chasing friends were jazzed for the set up yesterday and the Moderate Risk was justified. Over 32 tornadoes across parts of CO, KS and TX with Damaging winds across the same states and even in OK too. Vance AFB in Enid, Oklahoma reported a damaging wind gust at 81 mph.
If you want to see some amazing video, check this out: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QFLMu29SuNw
We may do it again today as the same area of low pressure spawns more severe weather. One thing I see with Today, the speed flow in the jetstream is going to be stronger and faster then Thursday, meaning more tornadoes. Check out SPC’s verbage for today:
THE COMBINATION OF DISCRETE INITIATION OF CONVECTION...AMPLE CAPE AND LAPSE RATES...STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR...AND HIGH HELICITY VALUES GIVE CONFIDENCE IN MAINTAINING THE FORECAST OF MULTIPLE TORNADOES /SOME STRONG/ TODAY OVER THE MODERATE RISK AREA. THE CORRIDOR OF GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO EXTEND ACROSS NORTHERN LA/SOUTHERN AR TO NEAR MEM. NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT OF SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT IS UNCLEAR AND WILL BE MODULATED BY RETURN SPEED OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY INTO THAT REGION.
So, here is the SPC Outlook:
Here is the Tornado Probability:
I am not a fan of chasing that area of the country… it’s too hilly with too many trees… it’s hard to chase naders there.
I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but this entire area of Severe Weather will move over the Ohio River Valley for Saturday.
If you are looking for something to do this afternoon, check out: http://www.severestudios.com/
You can chase tornadoes from the comfort of your own home! Thanks Severe Studios!
WeatherNation Meteorologist Jonathan Conder