El Nino Influenced Autumn Outlook Issued by the Climate Prediction Center
[Image: Scott Schlaff]
Warmer than average weather is the main message in the autumn outlook issued by the Climate Prediction Center. Most of the nation is expected to see above normal temperatures, covering the period from September to November. Only the Southeast is expected to see near average temperatures, where wetter than normal weather is anticipated. The Southwest may also see above normal precipitation. The Northwest is the only area with a drier than average prediction.
The September through November outlook sees increased potential for above-normal temperatures across the entire country outside of the Southeast. Wetter than normal conditions appear most likely for the Southwest, Southeast, and across Alaska. https://t.co/mOJL9KhAZX pic.twitter.com/LOc013y1uJ
— NWSCPC (@NWSCPC) August 16, 2018
The drought forecast, covering the same time range through the end of Novembe, looks for improvement in the Southwest. Drought development or persistence is expected in the Northwest, Upper Midwest, and over most of Texas.
#Drought development or persistence is forecast for parts of the Pacific Northwest, North Dakota, and Minnesota through November. Improving soil conditions appear likely for the Four Corners region through the Middle Mississippi Valley. https://t.co/CPY78JXHKa pic.twitter.com/H7NtQLcseG
— NWSCPC (@NWSCPC) August 16, 2018
The Climate Prediction Center states “the temperature and precipitation outlooks are consistent with the elevated probability of El Nino development and its impacts, with adjustments related to model forecasts and decadal timescale climate trends.” El Nino has yet to develop in the Pacific Ocean, but an El Nino Watch has been issued. The strength of the upcoming El Nino is still uncertain.
El Nino (translated from Spanish as “little boy”) is a natural ocean-atmospheric phenomenon producing warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean near the equator. It is usually marked by a warmer than average winter in the northern tier of the nation, with most of the southern sections of the country seeing above average precipitation.
For WeatherNation: Meteorologist Mace Michaels